The Sports Observer

Sportsbook players have a busy week ahead, starting with some intriguing NHL games to wager on this Tuesday night. Let’s try a two-game parlay and start our week off with some nice wins.

Vancouver Canucks @ Nashville Predators
Tuesday, December 8, 8:00 p.m. ET

At least on the road, the Vancouver Canucks are tough to figure out this season, sort of like the Patriots in NFL betting. Last week they thumped New Jersey and Philadelphia on the road yet fell to the last-place Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night. They’ll likely arrive in Music City more alert as they close out their road trip on Tuesday night. Henrik Sedin is scoring at a career-best pace; Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows are picking up where they left off during their breakout 2008-09 seasons. Daniel Sedin’s return from injury is gravy.

After a sizzling November, the Predators have stumbled, losing three of four. They sometimes struggle to beat elite goalies, as Miikka Kiprusoff shut them out last week and Niklas Backstrom stopped them too. I like the Canucks as slight road dogs.

Sports betting pick: Canucks

Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks
Tuesday, December 8, 10:00 p.m. ET

A huge disappointment so far, the Ducks are the Western Conference’s equivalent to the Phildelphia Flyers. If their top line of Getzlaf/Perry/Ryan doesn’t score, it seems no one else does, and things may not get better with Teemu Selanne now out with hand surgery. The bleeding just won’t stop; after five straight losses, Anaheim sits dead last in the Western Conference and it seems head coach Randy Carlyle’s days are numbered. The pesky Stars almost never go quietly and Brenden Morrow has re-established his rapport with Mike Ribeiro. The Ducks have quit on Carlyle. Make the Stars your sportsbook review picks.

Sports betting pick: Stars

NFL Betting - Sparks To Fly On Monday Night Football

Between college football and the NFL, we’ve had some classic football games over the weekend. The Florida Gators had an easy time of things while the Alabama Crimson Tide needed some late-game heroics to get past Auburn, which sets up some exciting Florida Alabama betting this coming weekend. But our weekend of NFL picks isn’t done yet as the NFL has presented us with its best dish on Monday Night Football.

The undefeated New Orleans Saints are back on Monday Night Football after hosting the Atlanta Falcons a few weeks back and while they were playing for first place in the division then, now they are battling for first place overall in the league. While the Saints will have the better record after Monday night regardless of the result, the truth is that the Patriots have become the measuring stick in the NFL. Everyone knows how successful they have been in recent years and while the Saints are enjoying a good year, the Patriots have enjoyed a good decade. The Saints are perfect on the year but a loss to the Patriots would send a clear message that their version of good is not good enough.

The Patriots have had an up and down season but they have been spot-on after a sluggish month of September. They have won four of their last five games with a near-win in Indianapolis. Monday night should present a very entertaining, high-scoring contest.

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
Online Sportsbook odds: Saints -1

For the second time in three weeks, the Patriots face an undefeated team. Who said life was easy? The good news for the Patriots heading into this game is that they have a 17-game winning streak against NFC opponents.

For this particular matchup, though, they might have the short end of the stick. The difference in this offensive, high-scoring game is going to be defense as the team who makes one or two key defensive stops will win the game. For the Saints, they have the better defensive line with quality ends Charles Grant and Will Smith, whereas the Patriots really don’t have much of a pass rush.

The Patriots may have the better secondary but giving Drew Brees time is just asking for trouble. This will be a high-scoring affair but given that the Saints are at home sporting the better defense should give them the edge.

Online Betting: Saints -1

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

NFL Betting Odds: Seahawks -3



The Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams are two of the worst teams in the NFL this year and on Sunday, they’ll faceoff in a game that few people will be watching.



It’s hard to avoid betting Seattle in this game, simply because the Rams will be without their starting quarterback Marc Bulger and their top running back, Steven Jackson, is banged up. But if Jackson plays, he is arguably the best player on either side and that could very well be the difference.



The Rams are a bad team that expected to be bad. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a bad team that expected to be good. We might notice a difference in effort in that case, especially since we saw the Seahawks mail it in last week.



The Rams are still fighting for their head coach Steve Spagnuolo and although Bulger is out, it’s not like he was playing great to begin with. Look for the Rams to win this game on effort.



Betting Picks: Rams +3



Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Online Betting Odds: Vikings -10.5



The Chicago Bears have hit a wall and that wall is called reality. The truth of the matter is that they just aren’t a very good football team. The Bears continue a tough stretch as this week they face the 9-1 Minnesota Vikings, who are arguably the best team in the NFC.



The problem for the Bears is that they really aren’t giving much help to quarterback Jay Cutler. Since the injury to Brian Urlacher, the Bears defense has deteriorated throughout the season. On offense, the running game ranks in the basement of the league (30th in the NFL) and the receivers aren’t giving Cutler much help. Beyond that, the offensive line is hanging Cutler out to dry.



This week, the Bears face a very good run defense with a dangerous defensive line. With Pro Bowlers like Kevin Williams, Pat Williams and Jared Allen, the Vikings are going to put Cutler under a lot of pressure. Since he’s not going to get much help, the Bears are going to have a tough time winning this game.



The Bears will need a monstrous defensive effort or a number of mistakes from the Vikings to win. That’s not likely to happen.

UFC 106 Betting - Tito Ortiz Returns to the Octagon Against Forrest Griffin

With NFL betting on Sunday and a UFC event for the second straight week, it’s a fun time to bet on sports. UFC 106 this Saturday night features a rematch between light heavyweights Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin. Both men have plenty to prove — Ortiz after an 18-month hiatus and Griffin after an embarrassing loss. Let’s make a pick for the main event.

Tito “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Ortiz
Record: 15-6-1
Sportsbook odds: +130
Notable victories: Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, Ken Shamrock, Forrest Griffin

STRENGTHS: Even if he’s lost some strength at age 34, Tito Ortiz remains a strong technical wrestler. He arrives for his fights in good shape and uses his broad shoulders to control the pace of fights and muscle opponents on the ground. He lacks real finishing ability in his hands but can grind out wins via ground and pound once he takes opponents down. He’s also reportedly working hard on his submissions; it’s worth noting that he almost submitted Lyoto Machida in his last fight 18 months ago.

WEAKNESSES: Against most opponents, Ortiz is at a disadvantage in the striking game. Polished strikers like Chuck Liddell (in his prime) and Machida picked Tito apart and hurt him badly. Forrest Griffin isn’t a killer but his standup is probably better than Tito’s.

Forrest Griffin
Record: 16-6
Sportsbook odds: -160
Notable victories: Quinton Jackson, Mauricio Rua

STRENGTHS: A tireless worker who always tries to get better, Forrest Griffin brings a diverse set of skills to each fight. He has solid striking and his phenomenal leg kicks keep opponents from getting close — which is important against wrestlers like Ortiz. He also snaps off kicks quickly and powerfully enough to do damage; he relied on leg kicks to defeat Rampage Jackson. Forrest is more capable than many people realize on the ground. He showed solid Jiu-Jitsu when he submitted Shogun Rua in a major upset two years ago.Griffins is also tough to push around, as he’s 6′3″ and reportedly walks around at almost 240 pounds. His size could neutralize Ortiz’s usual strength advantage.

WEAKNESSES: Because Forrest lacks power, opponents don’t have to fully respect his striking and can go for the takedown. That’s how he lost to Rashad Evans and he could get into trouble if he lets Ortiz get close. The mental game is a potential problem for Griffin too, as he had a breakdown after Anderson Silva humiliated him at UFC 101. He almost appeared to quit during the fight. Do we know he’s ready for the pressure this weekend?

Online betting pick: Griffin -160. People forget that Griffin had a mental breakdown after losing to Keith Jardine in 2006, too. He responded with three straight victories and a light heavyweight championship belt. Against Ortiz, a smaller man who can’t finish him the way Jackson, Evans and Silva could, Griffin should score enough points on his kicks and punches to pull out a victory. Pick him and make the Giants your NFL picks to bounce back similarly this week.

UFC 105 Odds - Couture vs Vera Pick

UFC online betting is back as we start a busy stretch that includes no less than four UFC events in the next five weekends. This weekend in England, Randy Couture returns to the light heavyweight division for his first fight at 205 pounds since 2006. Let’s break down his bout with up-and-comer Brandon Vera.

Randy “The Natural” Couture
Record: 16-10
Notable victories: Chuck Liddell, Vitor Belfort, Tito Ortiz
Sportsbook odds: -120

STRENGTHS: There’s no doubting that Couture always gives himself the best possible chance to win. He keeps himself in phenomenal shape and will likely arrive at UFC 105 fitter at 46 years old than Vera will be at age 32. Couture also studies his opponents carefully and always devises a specific plan to suppress his opponent’s strengths. In Vera’s case, that will mean Couture will use his still-great Greco-Roman wrestling to close the gap on Vera’s striking range, pin him against the cage, tire him out and take him down. After battling behemoths like Tim Sylvia, Brock Lesnar and Gabriel Gonzaga at heavyweight, Couture should have a much bigger strength advantage at 205 pounds.

WEAKNESSES: Randy has taken some serious punches over the years — enough that it isn’t too difficult to wobble him anymore. That means he has to be close to perfect defensively against Vera. All Vera needs to knock him out is one clean shot.

Brandon “The Truth” Vera
Record: 11-3
Notable victories: Frank Mir
Sportsbook odds: -110

STRENGTHS: Vera at least has the natural skills to back up the big game he talks. He’s a skilled, speedy Muay Thai striker. He can slow opponents down with his vicious leg and body kicks and he can knock people out with knees in the clinch too. His speed and reach will give him a significant striking advantage over Couture.

WEAKNESSES: Vera’s dedication has been questioned in the past, as he often showed up for fights out of shape. He also doesn’t seem like the smartest fighter; he lets fights go the judges when he has chances to finish opponents with a more aggressive approach. He’s capable on the ground but isn’t on par with Couture’s wrestling.

Outlook

Though Vera is the more dangerous fighter, I like Couture’s odds to teach him a lesson. Look for him to rush Vera and smother him early before taking the fight to the ground and bullying him. Go with the vets this weekend — Tom Brady’s NFL odds and Randy Couture’s UFC 105 odds are good sports picks.

NFL odds giving you brain cramps? Maybe it’s time to step off the field and onto the ice. The NHL has a slew of Saturday night games featuring some interesting cross-conference matchups. Here are a few to consider.

World Series Odds - Game 5 Pick

The Eagles’ NFL odds are looking great but the Phillies are on the ropes tonight. After clutch hits from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada carried the Yankees to a Game 4 World Series victory, the Bronx Bombers are one win away from ousting the Phillies. Can Cliff Lee keep the Phillies alive at home in Game 5? Time for some baseball picks.

World Series odds pick: Phillies -148

World Series odds: Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee carving up the Yankees, his name, into history

World Series odds
went in Philadelphia’s favor last night in a 6-1 victory over the Yankees. The game was exciting and there were a handful of heroes (and goats), but one in particular stood out above all else. Now, it can’t be overstated: Cliff Lee is having one of the greatest runs in postseason history. If you haven’t already, get on the Cliff Lee train. Now. Go. Run!

Lee has been absolutely dominant from the moment the postseason began. A midseason acquisition, Lee made 12 regular season starts for the Phillies; he was very good, going 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA. That was nothing, however, compared to what he’s done in October. Lee has started four games in the playoffs, all Phillies victories. He’s allowed a paltry two earned runs in 33.1 innings of work. Two. In 33.1 innings. That yields a microscopic 0.54 ERA in four starts. The former Indian isn’t necessairly an overpowering pitcher, but he’s taken his play up a notch, especially in the past two games when he fanned a combined 20 batters. It’s truly astounding to offshore sportsbook bettors.

The lefty’s effort last night should go down in history, especially if Philly wins the World Series. Lee went the distance, allowing one run (unearned) while striking out 10 batters. He was even spectacular on defense, making a nifty behind-the-back catch at one point. Perhaps most impressive, the game felt like a complete blowout for most of the evening–despite the Phillies leading just 2-0 heading into the eighth inning. Lee was so dominant he made MLB odds fans forget the score was actually quite close.

Lee should have one more, and possibly two more starts left in the World Series. That’s two more games to carve his name into history. Lee has had a very interesting career thus far, from being a fourth-round pick, to going 18-5 in 2005 with the Indians, to being banished to the minors in ‘07, to winning the Cy Young in 2008 when he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. He’s faced many doubters throughout his baseball career, but those critics have run out of bullets. If you’re not on the Cliff Lee train yet, hop aboard while there’s still time on your sports picks.