The Sports Observer

UFC 106 Betting - Tito Ortiz Returns to the Octagon Against Forrest Griffin

With NFL betting on Sunday and a UFC event for the second straight week, it’s a fun time to bet on sports. UFC 106 this Saturday night features a rematch between light heavyweights Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin. Both men have plenty to prove — Ortiz after an 18-month hiatus and Griffin after an embarrassing loss. Let’s make a pick for the main event.

Tito “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Ortiz
Record: 15-6-1
Sportsbook odds: +130
Notable victories: Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, Ken Shamrock, Forrest Griffin

STRENGTHS: Even if he’s lost some strength at age 34, Tito Ortiz remains a strong technical wrestler. He arrives for his fights in good shape and uses his broad shoulders to control the pace of fights and muscle opponents on the ground. He lacks real finishing ability in his hands but can grind out wins via ground and pound once he takes opponents down. He’s also reportedly working hard on his submissions; it’s worth noting that he almost submitted Lyoto Machida in his last fight 18 months ago.

WEAKNESSES: Against most opponents, Ortiz is at a disadvantage in the striking game. Polished strikers like Chuck Liddell (in his prime) and Machida picked Tito apart and hurt him badly. Forrest Griffin isn’t a killer but his standup is probably better than Tito’s.

Forrest Griffin
Record: 16-6
Sportsbook odds: -160
Notable victories: Quinton Jackson, Mauricio Rua

STRENGTHS: A tireless worker who always tries to get better, Forrest Griffin brings a diverse set of skills to each fight. He has solid striking and his phenomenal leg kicks keep opponents from getting close — which is important against wrestlers like Ortiz. He also snaps off kicks quickly and powerfully enough to do damage; he relied on leg kicks to defeat Rampage Jackson. Forrest is more capable than many people realize on the ground. He showed solid Jiu-Jitsu when he submitted Shogun Rua in a major upset two years ago.Griffins is also tough to push around, as he’s 6′3″ and reportedly walks around at almost 240 pounds. His size could neutralize Ortiz’s usual strength advantage.

WEAKNESSES: Because Forrest lacks power, opponents don’t have to fully respect his striking and can go for the takedown. That’s how he lost to Rashad Evans and he could get into trouble if he lets Ortiz get close. The mental game is a potential problem for Griffin too, as he had a breakdown after Anderson Silva humiliated him at UFC 101. He almost appeared to quit during the fight. Do we know he’s ready for the pressure this weekend?

Online betting pick: Griffin -160. People forget that Griffin had a mental breakdown after losing to Keith Jardine in 2006, too. He responded with three straight victories and a light heavyweight championship belt. Against Ortiz, a smaller man who can’t finish him the way Jackson, Evans and Silva could, Griffin should score enough points on his kicks and punches to pull out a victory. Pick him and make the Giants your NFL picks to bounce back similarly this week.

UFC 105 Odds - Couture vs Vera Pick

UFC online betting is back as we start a busy stretch that includes no less than four UFC events in the next five weekends. This weekend in England, Randy Couture returns to the light heavyweight division for his first fight at 205 pounds since 2006. Let’s break down his bout with up-and-comer Brandon Vera.

Randy “The Natural” Couture
Record: 16-10
Notable victories: Chuck Liddell, Vitor Belfort, Tito Ortiz
Sportsbook odds: -120

STRENGTHS: There’s no doubting that Couture always gives himself the best possible chance to win. He keeps himself in phenomenal shape and will likely arrive at UFC 105 fitter at 46 years old than Vera will be at age 32. Couture also studies his opponents carefully and always devises a specific plan to suppress his opponent’s strengths. In Vera’s case, that will mean Couture will use his still-great Greco-Roman wrestling to close the gap on Vera’s striking range, pin him against the cage, tire him out and take him down. After battling behemoths like Tim Sylvia, Brock Lesnar and Gabriel Gonzaga at heavyweight, Couture should have a much bigger strength advantage at 205 pounds.

WEAKNESSES: Randy has taken some serious punches over the years — enough that it isn’t too difficult to wobble him anymore. That means he has to be close to perfect defensively against Vera. All Vera needs to knock him out is one clean shot.

Brandon “The Truth” Vera
Record: 11-3
Notable victories: Frank Mir
Sportsbook odds: -110

STRENGTHS: Vera at least has the natural skills to back up the big game he talks. He’s a skilled, speedy Muay Thai striker. He can slow opponents down with his vicious leg and body kicks and he can knock people out with knees in the clinch too. His speed and reach will give him a significant striking advantage over Couture.

WEAKNESSES: Vera’s dedication has been questioned in the past, as he often showed up for fights out of shape. He also doesn’t seem like the smartest fighter; he lets fights go the judges when he has chances to finish opponents with a more aggressive approach. He’s capable on the ground but isn’t on par with Couture’s wrestling.

Outlook

Though Vera is the more dangerous fighter, I like Couture’s odds to teach him a lesson. Look for him to rush Vera and smother him early before taking the fight to the ground and bullying him. Go with the vets this weekend — Tom Brady’s NFL odds and Randy Couture’s UFC 105 odds are good sports picks.

NFL odds giving you brain cramps? Maybe it’s time to step off the field and onto the ice. The NHL has a slew of Saturday night games featuring some interesting cross-conference matchups. Here are a few to consider.

World Series Odds - Game 5 Pick

The Eagles’ NFL odds are looking great but the Phillies are on the ropes tonight. After clutch hits from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada carried the Yankees to a Game 4 World Series victory, the Bronx Bombers are one win away from ousting the Phillies. Can Cliff Lee keep the Phillies alive at home in Game 5? Time for some baseball picks.

World Series odds pick: Phillies -148

World Series odds: Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee carving up the Yankees, his name, into history

World Series odds
went in Philadelphia’s favor last night in a 6-1 victory over the Yankees. The game was exciting and there were a handful of heroes (and goats), but one in particular stood out above all else. Now, it can’t be overstated: Cliff Lee is having one of the greatest runs in postseason history. If you haven’t already, get on the Cliff Lee train. Now. Go. Run!

Lee has been absolutely dominant from the moment the postseason began. A midseason acquisition, Lee made 12 regular season starts for the Phillies; he was very good, going 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA. That was nothing, however, compared to what he’s done in October. Lee has started four games in the playoffs, all Phillies victories. He’s allowed a paltry two earned runs in 33.1 innings of work. Two. In 33.1 innings. That yields a microscopic 0.54 ERA in four starts. The former Indian isn’t necessairly an overpowering pitcher, but he’s taken his play up a notch, especially in the past two games when he fanned a combined 20 batters. It’s truly astounding to offshore sportsbook bettors.

The lefty’s effort last night should go down in history, especially if Philly wins the World Series. Lee went the distance, allowing one run (unearned) while striking out 10 batters. He was even spectacular on defense, making a nifty behind-the-back catch at one point. Perhaps most impressive, the game felt like a complete blowout for most of the evening–despite the Phillies leading just 2-0 heading into the eighth inning. Lee was so dominant he made MLB odds fans forget the score was actually quite close.

Lee should have one more, and possibly two more starts left in the World Series. That’s two more games to carve his name into history. Lee has had a very interesting career thus far, from being a fourth-round pick, to going 18-5 in 2005 with the Indians, to being banished to the minors in ‘07, to winning the Cy Young in 2008 when he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. He’s faced many doubters throughout his baseball career, but those critics have run out of bullets. If you’re not on the Cliff Lee train yet, hop aboard while there’s still time on your sports picks.

Celtics will frustrate LeBron, Cavs in season opener

The old trio is at least complimented by young Rajon Rondo, who is developing into one of the league’s premier point guards. Rondo averaged 11.9 points, 8.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game for Boston last season. Perhaps more importantly, he averaged 1.9 steals per game and is quickly proving himself to be a lockdown defender. The bench was also upgraded, which should give the starters more opportunity for rest. Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels add depth while Glen “Big Baby” Davis experienced some nice growth in 2008.

Cleveland, of course, will rely on LeBron James for just about everything. Will it be enough? King James proved he’s yet to reach his cieling yet, putting up 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game while having his minutes reduced by about three per game last season. His free throw percentage climbed to a career-best 78 percent, making him even more dangerous than ever. Still, we’ve all learned that LeBron can get close to the Finals by himself, but not quite finish the job. The most notable offseason addition is Shaquille O’Neal. The big man enjoyed a resurgent season last year when he averaged 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds for the Suns. Whether or not Shaq is willing to take a backseat to LeBron is the first order or buisness, followed by the Big Aristotle fitting into the offense and remaining healthy.

This is going to be an extremely close games with both teams entering the season healthy. The early edge goes to Boston, especially with reports surfacing that Shaq has yet to acclimate himself with the playbook (we’re betting management isn’t too happy about that). Expect the Celtics to play some mean defense, frustrate LeBron, and take a 1-0 lead in the race for first-place in the East. Bet on the Celtics if you’re betting on NBA odds.

NFL Betting - Week 7 Picks

NFL odds for Week 7 are posted already so there’s no time for standing around. Let’s make our picks!